CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-06-09T17:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-06-09T17:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25516/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2. The source is likely the associated M2.5 flare to the east of AR 13331 (S22E48, east of AR location of S22E38) and the associated eruption seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. An opening of field lines is visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery, with dimming seen even more to the East of the flare (and AR) location after 2023-06-09T17:08Z and post-eruptive loops starting to form around 2023-06-09T18:00Z. Update: This CME may have been detected at STEREO A on 2023-06-13T08:00Z, but we do not believe a signature was observed at L1 by ACE or DSCOVR.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-14T03:39Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Event id="327" SIDC URSIGRAM 30611 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 11 Jun 2023, 1231UT SIDC FORECAST CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:24 UTC on June 09, likely related to the M2.5 flare from NOAA AR 3331. The CME is directed to the south-east and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow of the shock may impact Earth in the late evening of June 13 or in the first half of June 14.Lead Time: 65.97 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2023-06-11T09:41Z
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